Short-term issuance forecast update: little change in ROC backlog as July sees no forestry issuances

July 30, 2018 by Emily Jackson

After the first 2 issuances of Q3 2018, the overall ARBOC pipeline hasn’t varied significantly. Just 197k ARBOCs were issued in July, to 7 livestock projects and 1 ODS project. Here we use our short-term offset issuance model to see what’s expected from the next offset issuances.

There is a backlog of around 2 million credits that we had predicted were due CCO issuance in Q1 2018. We had initially forecast for a much lower amount of forestry credits to be issued in Q3 2018, totaling just over 5 million credits – however ewe now expect this figure to be higher due to delayed credits from Q1 2018. This is made up of credits from 19 projects, the largest being Blue Soure’s Powellton IFM Project (ACR267) which is expecting over 1.5 million CCOs. There also remains a large amount of forestry ROCs expecting ARBOC issuances which we had initially predicted to be issued in Q2 2018 – notably 12 million credits from Finite Carbon’s Ahtna Native Alaskan IFM (ACR360), as well as slightly over 1 million credits from Finite Carbon’s MWF Adirondacks IFM (CAR1213).

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July’s issuances saw 7 livestock projects receive ARBOCs to the tune of 146.7k CCOs. We are only expecting a small number of projects to receive credits that were expected in Q1 and Q2 2018. We predict a further 279k of livestock CCOs to be issued in August and September, from 14 projects.

There remain over 1.3million CCOs from ODS projects which we had expected to be issued during the first half of 2018. During the first issuance of July, Coolgas Inc’s 2017-5

(CAR1267) received 50k CCOs. The next expected large ODS issuance is of 98k CCOs to Reclamation Technologies’ A-Gas 2018-3 (CAR1259). We also await 2k credits to be issued in Q3 2018 to Wabashco’s Baker Mine AMM (ACR342).

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Note: For the purposes of this forecast, we have limited the analysis to existing projects and listed projects. Early action projects and projects yet to be listed are not considered. Furthermore, we assume that projects will continue to operate as usual, without delays or disruptions, and that there will be no credit invalidations up to 2020.



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