November 5, 2013 by CaliforniaCarbon.info
CaliforniaCarbon.info, 05 November 2013: California is unlikely to achieve its target to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 from 1990 levels, according to report supported by the Air Resources Board. The research report prepared by the Environmental Energy Technologies Division of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has projected the state’s emissions till 2050 under three policy scenarios.
Scenario 1 assumes that the state would not implement any new low-carbon policies; scenario 2 assumes that the state would expand low-carbon policies in sectors like biofuels and waste diversion; and scenario 3 assumes that the state would implemented aggressive policies in the transportation and renewable energy sector.
Interestingly, under none of these scenarios is the state expected to achieve an emission level of around 85 million metric tons of CO2e by 2050, that is 80% lower than the 1990 emissions level. The state is expected to achieve its 2020 emission reduction target by successfully implementing the policies already announced.
The lowest level of GHG emissions that could be achieved under scenario 3 by 2050 is about 100 million metric tons, more than the target emission level of 85 million metric tons. Under such a case, the electricity and industrial sectors would be largest contributors to the GHG emissions.
Some of the aggressive policy measures that could be implemented in scenario 3 include, increased use of zero emission vehicles, increased efficiency in the transportation sector, increased use of carbon capture and storage in the electricity sector, and faster phaseout of HFCs.
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