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Weekly Carbon Outlook – May 8, 2017

May 8, 2017 by Billy Hamshaw

(See below to download report)

Trading Report

  • Trading activities increased significantly with a total of 12,139,000 in traded volume
  • CCAs price crashed below USD14 in light of the proposed SB 775
  • OCA’s Dec 17 benchmark trading at CA$ 19.35 (US$14.11), USD 0.03 below CCA equivalent

Price Expectations

  • WCI market participants geared up for the upcoming joint Auction on May 16th
  • SB 775 if passed and the new program adopted, we would anticipate the market to progress towards a zero-balance scenario
  • Expected V17 ranges: $14.00- $14.10 (Front); $14.20- $14.28(2017 Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • 427,000 ROCs issued across three livestock projects, 2 forestry projects and 1 ODS project.
  • Congaree River (ACR292) and Klamath IFM West (ACR274) receive 117K and 77K respectively
  • Origin Climate’s Scenic View Dairy (CAR1035) and Brook View Dairy (CAR1036) gain a cumulative 37K ROCs for livestock developments in Michigan
  • A-Gas Americas 2017-2 (CAR1252) the highest scorer with 140K ROC issuances.
  • Only one new ODS project listed
  • Offset prices fall with CCAs, closing the week at $10.78, $11.23, $12.59 for CCO-8s, 3s and Goldens respectively.

Policy Tracker

  • SB 775 – Banking of allowances and offsets would no longer be allowed in the cap-and-trade program beyond 2020

Key Dates

  • May 15 – ARB Public workshop meeting that will focus on Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel
  • May 16 – WCI Joint Auction to offer years 2014 and 2017 vintage allowances in the Current Auction and year 2020 future vintage allowances in the Advance Auction.

Download this report (pdf)

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