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Weekly Carbon Outlook (May 31, 2016)

May 31, 2016 by Harry Horner

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A. Trading Report

  • Prices largely insulated from auction undersubscription, front down $0.01 to $12.39
  • Lack of fresh auction volume translates into low activity on secondary market   
  • Previous OI trend continues.

B. Price Expectations

  • All usual endogenous mechanisms point to market stasis
  • Material impacts will be felt through external regulatory/legal developments
  • Expected V16 ranges: $12.35 – $12.45 (Front); $12.41 – $12.49 (Benchmark)   

C. Sectorial Positions

  • Oil & Gas and Transportation fuels may provide buy-side interest

D. CCO Tracker

  • ARB issues 147,128 CCOs across 3 projects
  • MDDELCC issues 306,298 offsets; WCI offset count crosses 40 million
  • 529,749 new ROCs; ROC pipeline rises to 2.56 million
  • 3 new verifier appointments

E. Policy Tracker

  • No legislative updates

F. Key Dates

  • June 2 – Auction consignment data

Download this report (pdf)

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