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Weekly Carbon Outlook – Mar 27, 2017

March 27, 2017 by Billy Hamshaw

(See below to download report)

Trading Report

  • Trading activities ramped up with over 5,636,000 tons traded in total last week
  • CCA current front settled at USD 13.56, a slim USD 0.01 below the reserve price
  • OCA’s Dec 17 benchmark trading at CA$ 18.41 (US$13.77) unchanged from previous week

Price Expectations

  • The Front-to-year-end implied funding rate improved to 1.97% from previous week’s low of 1.37%
  • Ontario’s market participants awaits the auctions results to be announced on 4th April
  • Expected V17 ranges:$13.57- $13.60 (Front); $13.71- $13.76(2017 Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • Over 270k ARBOCs issued across 4 new projects
  • Blue Creek IFM (ACR282) and Crane Valley (CAR1114) receive inaugural ROCs
  • Risk free CCO count jumps to 6.5 million as 624k credits surpass invalidation time frame
  • Blue Source recipient of bulk of new CCO-0s

Policy Tracker

  • AB 151 – It would now no longer  limit the applicability of the cap-and-trade regulation beyond 2020

Key Dates

  • Mar 23 and 24 – ARB Board Meeting to Hear Proposed Updates to Senate Bill 375 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets and to Consider the Proposed Regulation for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Facilities
  • Apr 06 – ARB Public workshop on the fiscal year 2017-18 funding plan for low carbon transportation investments, air quality improvement program, and potential $25 million Volkswagen settlement funds

Download this report (pdf)

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