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Weekly Carbon Outlook – Mar 13, 2017

March 13, 2017 by Billy Hamshaw

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Trading Report

  • CCAs market recovered post the disastrous auction results week as the current front closed at US$58.
  • V17, April 2017 delivery appeared on exchange for the first time with 550,000 contracts
  • OCA’s Dec 17 benchmark trading at CA$ 18.41 (US$13.67), US$0.06 below the CCA’s

Price Expectations

  • The Front-to-year-end implied funding rate recovered to 1.48% from previous week’s low of 1.39%
  • Two out of the three remaining auctions in 2017 needed to be fully subscribed to avoid cumulative annual shortage.
  • Expected V17 ranges:$13.55 – $13.59 (Front); $13.64- $13.69(2017 Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • 6 million issued in latest ARB announcement
  • Passamquoddy Tribe IFM (CAR1175) gained half a million forestry credits
  • VCS’s first compliance project receives ROCs
  • 407,900 ROCs issued
  • Two new project listings

Policy Tracker

  •  AB 151 – It would now no longer  limit the applicability of the cap-and-trade regulation beyond 2020

Key Dates

  • Mar 17 – Public Working Meeting focused primarily on potentially on including Alternative Jet Fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard
  • Mar 23 and 24 – ARB Board Meeting to Hear Proposed Updates to Senate Bill 375 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets and to Consider the Proposed Regulation for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Facilities

Download this report (pdf)

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