Weekly Carbon Outlook – June 12, 2017

June 12, 2017 by Billy Hamshaw

(See below to download report)

Trading Report

  • Brown signs subnational commitments with Chinese provinces
  • CARB release 2015 emission data
  • 4,453,000 tons traded with 80% concentrated on V2017
  • Current front contract, Jun 17, closed week at USD 14.06, USD 0.04 down from previous week’s close
  • A net change of 5,642,000 observed on open interest creation
  • OCA remains stagnant with little trade ahead of auction results

Price Expectations

  • California senate struggles to extend the cap-and-trade program beyond 2020
  • A fully subscribed second auction in Ontario will bring its cumulative surplus to 0.6 million of allowances.
  • Expected V17 ranges: $14.10- $14.18 (Front); $14.25- $14.233 (2017 Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • Chugarch Alaska Forest Carbon Project (CAR1264) commits 117,000 acres of Native land to forest conservation in Alaska
  • Fresh ROCs issued to single ODS and Livestock projects

Policy Tracker

  • SB 100 – Introduced by Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León, it requires California to generate all its electricity from renewable.
  • SB 775 – It would now no longer allow banking of allowances and use of offsets in the cap-and-trade program beyond 2020. It also prevents free allocation of allowances and thus incentivise industry to invest in cleaner technology.

Key Dates

  • June 13 – Results report of Ontario cap-and-trade auction 2 for greenhouse gas allowances

Download this report (pdf)

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