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Weekly Carbon Outlook – Aug 7, 2017

August 7, 2017 by Ronjoy Bezbarua

(See below to download report)

Trading Report

  • Prices dipped from Tuesday through Thursday reaching $14.88 for the front and $14.98 for the benchmark
  • OCA Dec 17 benchmark prices close at CAD 18.95 (USD 14.99)
  • OI saw a positive net change of 3,699,000 contracts
  • Volume traded saw a significant increase to 7,147,000 tons

Price Expectations

  • Despite active trading, CCAs price continued to decline throughout the last week
  • Ontario market participants appear to prefer auctions over secondary market to obtain allowances as their first compliance surrender is due only after 2020.
  • Expected V17 ranges: $14.90- $14.98 (Front); $15.00- $15.09 (2017 Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • Backlog of ROCs climbs to 30 million as Oregon forestry project claims 2.6 million credits
  • Finite Carbon, A-GAS Americas and Sustainable Venture Partners also claim new ROCs
  • Three new ODS projects launch on the registries
  • CCO prices not insulated from losses on the CCA market

Policy Tracker

  • AB 398- (Garcia, De León) Extension of Cap-and-Trade from 2020 – 2030 with the introduction of a price ceiling, price containment points, reduced offset usage and revisions of industry assistance factors.
  • SB 100- (Kevin de León) The California Renewables Portfolio Standard Program would double up California’s renewable energy ambition, mandating 100% RE procurement by 2045.
  • SB 498- (Skinner) Beginning no later than 2024-2025 fiscal year, at least 50% of the light-duty vehicles purchased for the state vehicle fleet each year must be zero emission vehicles.

Key Dates

  • Aug 15– California Air Resources Board and Quebec’s MDDELCC will conduct its 12th Joint Auction for Carbon allowances and will offer year 2017 vintage allowances in the Current Auction and year 2020 future vintage allowances in the Advance Auction.

Download this report (pdf)

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