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Weekly Carbon Outlook – Aug 21, 2017

August 21, 2017 by Ronjoy Bezbarua

(See below to download report)

Trading Report

  • Weekly price movement remained slow at $14.70 for the front and $14.82 for the benchmark
  • OCA Dec 17 benchmark prices close at CAD 18.80 (USD 14.94)
  • OI saw a positive net change of 5,810,000 contracts
  • Volumes traded saw a high increase to 2,640,000 tons

Price Expectations

  • Trading activities declined as market participants eagerly awaits the auction results
  • Trading activities increased in the medium term and long term contracts suggest that the participants are gearing up for their future needs given the more certainty of the program.
  • Expected V17 ranges: $14.70- $14.78 (Front); $14.80- $14.88 (2017 Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • Large volume of registry issuances advances ROC backlog to 6 million
  • 11 million ROCs issued to Finite Carbon’s Sealaska Native Alaskan IFM (ACR324)
  • Revisions to Colville IFM (ACR255) documentation sees addition of 703K ROCs
  • 38K credits awarded across two Californian forestry projects
  • Two livestock RPs and one new ODS projects also gain new issuances
  • CCO prices remain stable over the week

Policy Tracker

  • AB 398- (Garcia, De León) Extension of Cap-and-Trade from 2020 – 2030 with the introduction of a price ceiling, price containment points, reduced offset usage and revisions of industry assistance factors.
  • SB 100- (Kevin de León) The California Renewables Portfolio Standard Program would double up California’s renewable energy ambition, mandating 100% RE procurement by 2045.
  • SB 498- (Skinner) Beginning no later than 2024-2025 fiscal year, at least 50% of the light-duty vehicles purchased for the state vehicle fleet each year must be zero emission vehicles.

Key Dates

  • Aug 22– California Air Resources Board and Quebec’s MDDELCC will release the results of its Joint Auction for Carbon allowances held on 15th August
  • Aug 31 – Public workshop to discuss proposed California adoption of Federal Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Standards for medium- and heavy-duty engines and vehicles

Download this report (pdf)

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