Weekly Carbon Outlook – Aug 14, 2017

August 14, 2017 by Ronjoy Bezbarua

(See below to download report)

Trading Report

  • Prices dipped from throughout the week reaching $14.75 for the front and $14.86 for the benchmark
  • OCA Dec 17 benchmark prices close at CAD 18.80 (USD 14.82)
  • OI saw a positive net change of 3,044,000 contracts
  • Volume traded saw a high increase to 14,344,000 tons

Price Expectations

  • Despite active trading, CCAs price continued to decline throughout the last week as auction approaches
  • V2020, witnessed trading activities for the first times across delivery months.
  • Expected V17 ranges: $14.70- $14.78 (Front); $14.80- $14.88 (2017 Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • 762,826 ARBOCs issued across 3 forestry projects
  • 2 million CCO-3s brought online through Passamaqouddy Tribe IFM (CAR1175)
  • Two Livestock projects and one MMC project gain new ROCs
  • CCO-8 prices fall as lower risk options hold value

Policy Tracker

  • AB 398- (Garcia, De León) Extension of Cap-and-Trade from 2020 – 2030 with the introduction of a price ceiling, price containment points, reduced offset usage and revisions of industry assistance factors.
  • SB 100- (Kevin de León) The California Renewables Portfolio Standard Program would double up California’s renewable energy ambition, mandating 100% RE procurement by 2045.
  • SB 498- (Skinner) Beginning no later than 2024-2025 fiscal year, at least 50% of the light-duty vehicles purchased for the state vehicle fleet each year must be zero emission vehicles.

Key Dates

  • Aug 15– California Air Resources Board and Quebec’s MDDELCC will conduct its 12th Joint Auction for Carbon allowances and will offer year 2017 vintage allowances in the Current Auction and year 2020 future vintage allowances in the Advance Auction.

Download this report (pdf)

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